I’m reluctant to contribute to speculation, however well-informed, about the propects of an attack on Iran by the Israeli or US military – or a combination of the two.

Spruiking for war: Haaretz front page, 16th July 201
There’s a danger of making the utterly outrageous seem ‘normal’.
So the first thing I’d like to say about a military attack on Iran is that it must not happen. This article is an attempt to help avert war, not talk it up.
The next thing is that any such attack would be an abominable and criminal act – utterly illegal under International law. Any pretence that the USA and Israel are other than rogue States would be blown away.
The third thing is that it would probably be orchestrated by the warmongers so it appears to be triggered by a (fabricated) ‘attack’ of some type by Iran, either on US soil, in Israel (less likely) or on US shipping or other targets around the world.
Such a ‘trigger’ is therefore a key sign to watch out for. Iran has made no threats, but has said it will defend itself if attacked. A faked ‘attack’ by Iran would give a veneer of legality to any US/Israeli assault, which would then quite likely trigger retaliation.
Beware ANY such atrocities purportedly carried out by Iran or its alleged proxies. They are likely to be staged false flag attacks.
The fourth thing is that the only retaliatory measures directly available to Iran in response to a US/Israeli attack – absent capabilities of which I’m unaware – entail hitting back hard on shipping in the gulf, at US troops stationed in the region (eg. Iraq and Afghanistan) or some other equally bloody measure.
Iran could cause significant caualties. It could also send the price of oil skywards in a day. Coming on the back of a global economy already in a shaky state, the impact on the lives of ordinary people around the world – in rich and poor countries – would be dramatically negative. The poor, as usual, would likely bear the heaviest burden of economic convulsions. But the affluent ‘west’ would feel pain too. Real economic pain.
The next thing is that, unlike all previous wars, this would indubitably and from the outset be a ‘War for Israel‘. No more distracting nonsense from the peace movement about ‘War for Oil’. Anyone unable or unwilling to attribute primary responsibility for any such war to the Israel Lobby would be braindead – or a lying Zionist.
Many recent and not-so-recent wars have been blamed by some commentators on the Israeli State. But the mass media and mainstream discourse usually provided cover at the time and most people never figured it out, despite rather obvious evidence for those who look.
This time would be different.
The six thing is that an assault on Iran would quite likely lead to a regional war – and there is no way of knowing where that war would end. The First World War was fought, initially, over issues concerning the Balkans. Four years later, few parts of the world were unaffected. World War Two was triggered by Polish mobiliation, followed the next day by German invasion of Poland. Few then could have predicted where it would end, six years later with some 60 million dead. Since then, the technology of war has undergone a quantum leap. A broadening front in this case could have incalculable consequences. In short, this is very serious; a real emergency in human affairs.
Which leads me to the last item on my list.
All people of good will should work together with urgency to stop this war from happening.
We need to use every avenue available, every lever, every opportunity to resist its outbreak.
One key tool is to make it clear to more people that the Zionist Lobby is behind this push for war. Like creatures that dwell under rocks, Zionist war planner don’t like light shone on their evil projects. It makes them blink.
Non-Jews need to grow some backbone and demand peace. Jews have a special role to play.
In Australia, it’s good to see that progressive Australian Jews now have outlets for opposition to hard line Zionism. But where are noisy demands from peace-loving members of the Jewish community that Iran is not to be attacked – demands that help offset the war-mongering of the mainstream Israel Lobby?
Now’s the time to hear them, loud and clear.

Sitting Ducks: Shipping in the Persian Gulf, July 16th 2010